Theories of Decision-making

How much influence do individual leaders have on foreign policy decision-making? How can we measure this influence? Using your knowledge of models of decision-making explain and expand on the influence of individuals in foreign policy.

Argument : individual leaders have significant influence on foreign policy decisionmaking especially in the unitary models of Rational Actor Model and Psychological Model on rational choices and cognitive perception by leaders; and also on non-unitary models of Organization Decision Making and Bureaucratic Politics on leveraging Standard Operating Procedures and impacting negotiating process.

– RAM : risk evaluation and maximization of utility influence decision-making (rational and unitary)

– Psychological : their perception to the world and their status in the position affect decision-making. (non-rational and unitary)

– ODM : within the organization impact standard operation procedures to influence decision-making. (rational and non-unitary)

– BP : influence bureaucratic bargaining process to leverage to decision-making. (non-rational and non-unitary)

Section II: The Practice of Decision-making : 2) Amy Zegart argues that errors are a feature – and not a bug – of organizational decision-making. Is she correct? Use examples from the case studies to analyze the contribution of organizations to foreign policy decision-making. Can leaders avoid pitfalls? Are they cursed to suffer from organizational mismanagement of foreign policy? OR is Zegart incorrect – organizations improve decision-making?

● Incorrect, the organizations help make foreign policy decisionmaking as long as the SOPs has been built up and 4 streams of decisionmaking communicated well.

– 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself?? – Fail to match the situation with the SOPs, not the failure of SOPs itself.

– 911 is a result of failed bureaucratic bargaining not organization failure. – 911 failure results from problems and participant failure thus cause the solutions and

choice opportunities failure in decisionmaking

Two cases comparison: – Context different: 911 extreme case, lack of experience – 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself

– Gulf war cases have successful previous US oversea intervention experience

Essay 2 structure : Introduction: 1 page

– Argument: Incorrect, the organizations help make foreign policy decisionmaking as long as the SOPs has been built up and 4 streams of decisionmaking communicated well.

Body paragraph 1: 2 pages – Organization help in foreign policy decisionmaking and decrease the individual’s

mismanagement risks. – How ODM model works

– Pattern-matching SOPs – 4 streams: Problem, solutions, participants and choice opportunities (a

process of coordination) – How organization helps leader minimize mistakes

Body paragraph 2: 1 ½ pages – Analyze the case of one hundred hour of war (ODM model successful case)

– Context – Individual actors in organizations – Potential options in responding to Iraq invasion – Good communication of the 4 streams – SOPs (has previous oversea intervention experience, and have coordinated goal

causes good communication)

Body paragraph 3: 1 ½ pages – Analyze the case of 911 attack (ODM model failure case)

– Context – Individual actors in organizations – Lack of experience even with the warning – Some negative sides of organization (could refer to the class notes) – Did not have previous SOPs due to new form of terror attack

Body paragraph 4: Compare two cases: 1 ½ pages – Why the case of gulf war is successful and why 911 attack failed to defend

– Relates to the ODM model – Context different: 911 extreme case, lack of experience. 100 hour war has

coordinated goal and have previous oversea intervention SOPs – 911 case is a failure of process of building SOPs not the failure of SOPs itself.

Body paragraph 5: 1 ½ pages – Use the 100 hour war case to answer the questions: Can leaders avoid pitfalls? Are they

cursed to suffer from organizational mismanagement of foreign policy? – Yes, the organization can help leader minimize the pitfalls and eliminate

mismanagement in pattern-matching when SOPs already built and 4 streams coordinated well.

Conclusion: 1 page